Lucid Group —the electric-vehicle start-up tally by Peter Rawlinson, who helped make the Tesla Model S a decennary ago—got its archetypal standing from Wall Street Thursday. It is simply a bullish call.
Citigroup expert Itay Michaeli launched sum of Lucid (ticker: LCID). He recommends buying the banal and acceptable a people of $28 for the price. Lucid banal gained 4.9% to adjacent the time astatine $19.85, portion the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
“Lucid resembles overmuch of what we similar astir Tesla, but without the lofty 2030 [market] stock and [self driving] outcomes that 1 indispensable underwrite,” wrote the expert successful a Thursday report. He believes the aboriginal is successful conveyance electrification and autonomous-driving technology. He conscionable doesn’t similar the terms anyone buying Tesla present indispensable pay.
Michaeli rates Tesla shares Sell and has a people of $209 for the price. That values Tesla astatine astir $200 cardinal nett of cash, portion the analyst’s $28 people for Lucid values that banal astatine astir $41 billion, besides nett of cash.
Lucid, of course, hasn’t delivered immoderate cars. “The [production] ramp volition beryllium a cardinal sentiment operator for the adjacent six to 12 months,” added the analyst. He projects Lucid volition merchantability 20,000 units, for $2.2 billion, successful 2022.
Analysts presently estimation Tesla volition merchantability astir 1.1 oregon 1.2 cardinal vehicles successful 2022 and make income of astir $69 billion. Sales volition beryllium astir 30 times Lucid’s. Still, Lucid is increasing disconnected a smaller base, truthful investors tin expect a faster complaint of increase.
Michaeli is the archetypal to motorboat sum of Lucid stock, though the institution has been successful the investing quality for a while. It announced plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition institution in February and completed the woody successful July Analysts typically don’t prime up sum of a institution until its merger is completed. Even afterward, it tin instrumentality a portion for probe to ramp up.
A institution with a marketplace worth the size of Lucid’s should yet person 15 oregon 20 analysts covering its stock. Lucid is 1 of the astir invaluable EV players successful the satellite now, trailing down Tesla and Chinese EV players NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV). Lucid and Li Auto (LI) person precise akin marketplace capitalizations.
Lucid banal has deed a unsmooth spot recently. Shares are down astir 20% implicit the past month. Tesla banal is up astir 5% implicit that span, but the 3 Chinese EV stocks are down astir 8% connected average.